Football

West Ham or Spurs? London rivals at risk of relegation as Leeds and Nottingham Forest pull away – Between the Lines

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By Admin
Sports Journalist
West Ham or Spurs? London rivals at risk of relegation as Leeds and Nottingham Forest pull away – Between the Lines

Wolves have been relegated from the Premier League and Burnley are set to follow but which side is going down with them?

With Leeds and Nottingham Forest now eight and five points clear of the drop zone respectively, it looks increasingly like a two-way fight for survival between West Ham and Spurs.

The London rivals continue to be separated by only two points in 17th and 18th and the risk of relegation is increasing for both sides with only five games of the season remaining.

Will West Ham come to look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed opportunity? A victory would have cut Spurs adrift. Instead the situation remains delicately poised.

"It's going to be a fight until the end," Nuno Espirito Santo told Your Site. The West Ham boss was keen to maintain a positive outlook, much like his Spurs counterpart Roberto De Zerbi, who said his side can win their last five games in a row after their draw with Brighton.

Speaking on Monday Night Football, Jamie Carragher acknowledged Spurs' improvement in their two games under the Italian.

"There's no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact in terms of the performances," he said. "They played really well at the weekend and should have got more than one point out of it."

But having lost his first game to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended Spurs' winless run to 15 Premier League games. It is more than twice as long as any other side's, with 19th-placed Burnley's seven-game streak the next-highest in the division.

Bringing an end to that run is far from assured even against relegated Wolves on Saturday, according to Carragher.

"They haven't won a Premier League game since December, it's unbelievable," he added. "I can't see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I've seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up."

While De Zerbi and Spurs are having to build momentum from a standing start, Nuno has already turned West Ham's season around. The Hammers have only lost one of their last five Premier League games but their improvement goes back further.

Fatefully, the turning point came at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, when Callum Wilson scored in the 93rd minute to clinch a 2-1 win. West Ham have the sixth-best record in the division since then, with five wins and only three losses from 12 games putting them on 1.6 points per game, up from 0.7 per game previously.

Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, are on a five-game unbeaten run, their longest of the season, following their 4-1 win over Burnley.

Based on the average league positions of their remaining opponents, Spurs have the easier fixtures.

Their final five opponents have an average position of 11, compared to West Ham's 9.4 and Nottingham Forest's 8.4.

But while West Ham have the benefit of playing three of their last five games at home, Spurs only have two. Their schedule includes daunting trips to fourth-placed Aston Villa and sixth-placed Chelsea.

Spurs have not won any of their last seven Premier League games at Stamford Bridge. They have lost their last five games against Chelsea, and their last four games against Aston Villa.

West Ham's schedule is not straightforward either. Their away games are against Brentford and Newcastle. They also have to host title-chasing Arsenal. Everton boss David Moyes will be eager to take a positive result on his return to the London Stadium on Saturday.

Nottingham Forest have the most difficult games of the three based on the league positions of their opponents. Like Spurs, they also have three away games, with Chelsea and Manchester United to come after Friday's trip to Sunderland.

But given the threshold for survival could be 38 points, according to Opta, Forest might only be one win away from safety having moved to 36 with Sunday's crucial victory over Burnley.

"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, 'they're not far away now."

Spurs received a boost against Brighton as James Maddison returned to their squad for the first time this season following a knee injury. Although the 29-year-old was an unused substitute, his inclusion raised hopes he could feature before the season is over.

But injuries continue to be a major issue for Spurs, with Cristian Romero having been ruled out for the run-in during the defeat to Sunderland and Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies also absent.

Kulusevski, arguably their most important attacking player alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.

West Ham, by contrast, have an almost clean bill of health. According to Premier Injuries, their only injured player is third-choice goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski, giving Nuno considerably more options than his Spurs counterpart De Zerbi.

According to Opta's predicted table, which factors hundreds of thousands of data points and is based on 10,000 simulations, Spurs are now strong favourites to go down.

They give Spurs a 58.3 per cent relegation probability following the latest round of Premier League fixtures. It is significantly higher than West Ham's 36.9 per cent probability.

Nottingham Forest are given a probability of just 4.4 per cent after opening up their five-point cushion on Spurs in 18th, while 15th-placed Leeds are deemed all but safe, with a relegation probability of 0.4 per cent having moved to 39 points.

According to Opta's expected points model, Spurs are predicted to finish on 37 points, two points behind West Ham on 39 points. De Zerbi has his work cut out to ensure a different outcome.

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